INTERIM EVALUATION OF THE WORLD FERTILITY SURVEY (WFS); FINAL REPORT

AS THE WFS PROJECT CONTINUES TO GROW IN COMPLEXITY, IT IS INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT THAT THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVES BE RANKED ACCORDING TO PRIORITY AND THAT THE FUTURE WORK PLANS RELFECT THIS RANKING. THE WFS WILL ACHIEVE QUITE GOOD COVERAGE, ASSUMING THAT INDIA AND MUCH OF AFRICA WILL BE INCLUDED. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT OMISSIONS, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THE INITIAL GOALS OF COUNTRY PARTICIPATION WILL BE MET. WITH NECESSARY CONSTRAINTS ON THE SIZE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE, THE CONTENT OF THE QUESTIONNAIRES DOES INCLUDE THE MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY. THE WFS HAS ALSO BEEN ABLE TO RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO ATTACH OTHER ITEMS,OF INTEREST FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH BUT SEEN AS HAVING ONLY MARGINAL EFFECT ON FERTILITY ANALYSIS. THE WSF HAS PLACED CONSIDERABLE EMPHASIS ON THE PRODUCTION OF HIGH-QUALITY SURVEYS. THE WFS STAFF IS AWARE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF SURVEY DATA, AND PLANS ARE UNDERWAY FOR AN EARLY ANALYSIS OF THE QUALITY OF THE DATA. FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, THE WFS IS MAKING TWO MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS: (1)THE DATA THAT ARE BEING PRODUCED WILL ADD SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE BODY OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FERTILITY PATTERNS; AND (2)THE WFS IS HELPING COORDINATE AND CENTRALIZE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON FERTILITY THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION WAS INITIALLY FORESEEN TO LAST THREE YEARS. IT NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SCHEDULE CAN BE ADHERED TO, AND THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE HAS SUGGESTED AN EXTENSION OF THE WFS TO MID-1982. THE EVALUATORS RECOMMENDED THAT THIS EXTENSION BE GRANTED AND THEY MADE RECOMMENDATIONS ABOUT WAYS IN WHICH THE PRIORITIES OF WFS OBJECTIVES SHOULD BE RECONSIDERED IF WFS WILL BE GIVEN A FIVE-YEAR EXTENSION.