Evaluation report of the world fertility survey

Evaluation covers the period 1/77-7/80 and is based on visits to AID/W, WFS London Headquarters, and the UN Fund for Population Activities; a review of survey documents, and interviews with project staff. WFS sampling, training, field supervision, editing, and data processing standards were higher than in previous surveys, but data processing is still a major bottleneck. Data produced were of high quality and will have long-term use in future studies of fertility and interrelationships between variables. There are signs that other institutions are adapting WFS data collection materials. In five of the six countries visited, fertility data were being used as a key input for population projections. In three countries visited, data use could be maximized by textual explanations, policymakers being often untrained in statistics or demography. To assure dissemination of data to those who could best use it, the publications mailing list should be revised. While WFS has built up supporting staff capability, the leadership in survey capability depends on a few people whose positions may be temporary. To maintain continuity and quality, WFS or another international agency should coordinate fertility surveys for some time. It is too early to judge WFS"s contribution to improved capability in LDC data analysis. A practical handbook for analysis of birth and pregnancy history should be prepared and more in-country seminars and regional workshops in data analysis held. In fact, WFS should now shift its emphasis from data collection to data processing and analysis in order to help countries use these internationally standardized data to make cross-national comparisons and expand archival work. It is emphatically recommended that A.I.D. fund the WFS through 1987 to assure completion of current surveys; facilitate second-stage analysis; address the long-term future of the archives; review and revise the questionnaire, modules, and manuals; and promote further surveys.