Long run outlook for world food production

FOUR GOALS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED, AND THEY NEED TO BE WEIGHTED QUITE DIFFERENTLY IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. THE FOUR GOALS ARE (1) EFFICIENCY -- MAXIMIZING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ECONOMICALLY; (2) EQUITY -- MANAGING THE ECONOMY SO AS TO DISTRIBUTE THE BENEFITS OF ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION EQUITABLY AMONG THE NATION"S FAMILIES; (3) CONSERVATION -- USING RENEWABLE AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES SO THAT THEIR POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY -- USING NATURAL RESOURCES FOR FOOD PRODUCTION IN SUCH A WAY THAT ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES ENTERING THE QUALITY OF LIFE ARE NOT IMPAIRED. IF FARMERS IN THE DEVELOPING NATIONS COULD ACHIEVE ANNUAL RATES OF INCREASE OF HARVESTED AREA AND YIELDS PER HECTARE SUGGESTED IN THE FAO INDICATIVE WORLD PLAN, TOTAL CEREAL GRAIN OUTPUT COULD BE AT LEAST DOUBLED BY THE YEAR 2000. IT IS LIKELY THAT CUMULATIVE GROWTH RATES IN FOOD PRODUCTION WILL BE ABOUT 75 OR 80 PER CENT OF THE IWP GOALS. THUS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL NEED AN INCREASED VOLUME OF GRAIN EXPORTS FROM THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE 1975-1985 PERIOD. HIGH PRICES FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WOULD PROVIDE STRONG INCENTIVES IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR INCREASES IN HARVESTED AREA, AS WELL AS IN YIELD PER HECTARE. OTHER ESSENTIAL CONDITIONS INCLUDE ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF FERTILIZERS AND OTHER INPUTS AT REASONABLE PRICES, ADEQUATE SUPPLIES OF CAPITAL FOR ECONOMICAL LAND AND WATER INVESTMENTS, ADEQUATE BUDGETARY RESOURCES FOR INSTITUTION BUILDING, MANPOWER TRAINING, ADAPTIVE RESEARCH AND RESOURCE INVESTIGATIONS, AND CONTINUED PROGRESS IN IMPROVING AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY BY INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL CENTERS.