Market opportunities for climate change technologies and services in developing countries

This report estimates the size of this market and discusses two scenarios for its growth over the next 10 years. The regions analyzed include Asia, Africa/Middle East, Eastern Europe and Russia, and Latin America. The sectors analyzed include commercial, residential, and industrial use, energy supply, and transportation. Combined, these sectors make up a CCMTS market estimated to be $29.9 billion in developing countries in 2000, with the U.S. share estimated at $5.3 billion (18%). Market projections for growth to 2010 were developed under two scenarios, "Business-As-Usual" and "Aggressive Growth". Under the Business-As-Usual scenario, which uses projected GDP growth rates, the CCMTS market is estimated to be $51.7 billion in 2010. Under the Aggressive Growth scenario, which takes into account the highest expected growth rates for technologies, the CCMTS market is estimated at $64.9 billion. Technologies and services in the commercial and residential sector represent 26% of the overall market for CCMTS, including those for energy-efficient lighting, building envelopes, building process controls, household appliances, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. In many regions, this market is well developed due to promulgation of codes and standards and programs for demand-side management and end-use efficiency. CCMTS in the industrial sector include process design and controls, motors, boilers, co-generation, and adjustable speed drives. Currently, this sector makes up only 11% of the market, but it is growing and industrial modernization and expansion in developing countries will continue to create new opportunities in this sector. The energy supply sector is typically the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is a growing sector in most developing countries. There are multiple technology options for continuing to expand energy supply with minimal additional emissions. The improved efficiency of new technologies and the desire to use cleaner fuels in new facilities have contributed to a sizeable market of 63% for CCMTS in developing countries. The transportation sector is usually the second largest contributor to GHG emissions, but makes up less than 1% of the current market for CCMTS. Mass transit, technologies and services for alternative fuel vehicles, and intelligent transportation systems are gaining the attention of developing country governments as an alternative to the highly polluting vehicles and transportation systems currently in place. Geographically, Asia is by far the largest regional market, accounting for 55% of the total market. Latin America represents a fast-growing market, accounting for 20% of the developing country market, while the Middle East and Africa account for 15%, and Eastern Europe and Russia for the remaining 10%. (Author abstract, modified)