Model-based consistency checks on medium-term growth prospects in Peru

The emphasis is on exploring possible responses of the economy to a rate of growth of foreign exchange receipts substantially lower in the first half of the 1970"s than has been observed in the past. It is concluded that if a policy of fairly steady devaluation (at a rate of about three percent per year) is pursued, historical growth rates may be maintained and some of the surplus manpower of the country absorbed. These results, along with the models and data on which they are based, are extremely preliminary, but deserve further elaboration.