Morocco increase in cereal production project

Ex post impact evaluation is based on document review, site visits, and interviews with project officials. Positively, the project contributed to the use of HYV"s of bread wheat in Morocco, spurred initiation of a program to breed improved bread and durum wheat varieties, and may have helped increase wheat production over the past 10 years. However, the choice of HYV"s, which were available only for bread wheat, as the key project technology limited project impact because bread wheat represented only 25% of wheat production. Ultimately, this made it impossible to reach the target of increasing production by 600,000 tons. The HYV"s were widely adopted by large farm operators (who have been the major project beneficiaries) and on irrigated lands, but the adoption rate among smaller, dryland farmers was much lower due to the high risk involved and the project"s failure to establish the institutional base needed to involve these farmers. Small farmer use of improved technology is increasing, however. While producer prices were generally weighted in favor of wheat farmers, other policies - despite government rhetoric - did not generally support technology adoption and increased wheat production. Although Morocco has benefited from a continuing relationship with CIMMYT, there has been little progress in institutionalizing research and extension services since the project"s termination. Lessons learned are that: agricultural projects should take account of the extremely important risk factor and the relationship between livestock and cereal production; it is highly probable that economic, social, physical, and technological changes will directly or indirectly affect achievement of a project"s objectives; government priorities must be fully understood in order to ensure that project priorities are consistent with them; and ongoing analysis of technical, social, and economic problems requires the institutionalization of effective support systems.