Niger : monitoring the effect of policy reform

This report provides a conceptual approach to designing systems for such monitoring and applies them to two policy reform efforts in Niger: the Agricultural Sector Development Grant and the Niger Economic Policy Reform Program. The first part of the report discusses a number of issues pertinent to the design of policy reform programs, with emphasis on the importance of establishing a link between specific policy actions and specific measurable outcomes. Three problem areas related to this issue are identified: the reliability of the economic logic and assumptions linking a reform to certain outcomes; the existence of counterfactual and extenuating circumstances; and the length of time between a cause and its effects. Additional concerns include the choice of variables to monitor and practical considerations related to the design, operation, and maintenance of the monitoring system. The second section of the report outlines a possible monitoring approach and appplies it to the two Niger programs. The approach links three performance dimensions - rural living standards, income distribution, and sustainability - to the structural conditions of Niger"s economy. Recommendations on the design of a system to monitor agricultural policy reforms are presented in conclusion.