Pakistan’s Changing Demography: Urbanization and Peri-Urban Transformation Over Time

The study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to evaluate improvements in transportation infrastructure and related urbanization over the last 40 years in Pakistan. Pakistan has one of the largest shares of population living in urban areas, with nearly 40 percent of the population residing in cities. However, the country's urbanization estimates do not distinguish between urban and peri-urban growth occurring outside of major urban areas and along transportation corridors. The study suggests a definition to measure peri-urban population using the agglomeration index methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2008). The results indicate substantial improvements in travel time between urban centers over the past five decades. Model results suggest a large growth in peri-urban areas around large cities and between important economic hubs. Analysis taking into account peri-urban areas suggests that 70 percent of the population lives in peri-urban or urban areas, whereas previous estimates suggest that 2/3 of the population are rural in Pakistan. The study highlights the importance of improving connectivity for more vibrant commercial activity, as emphasized by Pakistan's Framework for Economic Growth (GoP, 2011). The transport sector makes up 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and provides approximately 6 percent of employment in Pakistan. Road transportation is the primary mode of travel for moving goods within Pakistan, handling 96 percent of total freight traffic. The study uses an agglomeration index measurement to standardize and compare urban growth over time. The agglomeration index identifies urban areas by taking into account three indicators: population size of a major city, population density, and travel time to a major city. Population density is calculated using data reported by the Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) and LandScan (Dobson et al., 2000). Travel time is defined as the time required to access the nearest city of 500,000 population or more within Pakistan. The study estimates a 2010 population density data using growth rates published by the Government of Pakistan (GoP) for 1994 and 1965. Travel times for each of the four different types of road based on quality (primary roads, secondary roads, local/urban roads, and tertiary roads) are calculated based on the maximum speed limit assigned to each type of road. Railroad maps for 1965 and 1994 were also derived from the Survey of Pakistan (SoP), and the latter of which was adopted for 2010 as there is no significant difference between the 1994 and 2010 network length. The study's findings have significant implications for understanding the changing demography of Pakistan and the impact of transportation infrastructure on urbanization. The results suggest that peri-urban areas play a crucial role in the country's economic landscape, and improving connectivity and infrastructure development can have a significant impact on urbanization and economic growth.