Population dynamics of Nepal

This paper explores Nepal"s demographic situation from the 1950"s to the late 1970"s within the broader context of recent economic, agricultural, and environmental changes. Against an overview of Nepal"s history and geography, the authors discuss the sources of population data for Nepal - the vital registration system, censuses, and a variety of demographic surveys. Using this data, they successively discuss: (1) age reporting and the age and sex distribution of the population; (2) population growth from 1900 to the present and its relation to falling agricultural yields and stagnant per capita farm output; (3) health, nutrition, and mortality; (4) nuptiality and the rising age at which women are marrying; (5) trends in fertility over time and among regions; (6) attitudes toward and prevalence of birth control in light of the country"s decade-long family planning program; (7) migration, especally from the mountains to the terai (plains), and the surprising absence of widespread urbanization; and (8) the relationship between Nepal"s population and its environment. Finally, the authors offer three projections, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, for population growth in Nepal to the year 2030. All forecasts indicate that even if government targets for health improvements and fertility decline for the year 2000 are achieved (an unlikely scenario), Nepal"s population will rise from 13.8 million in 1976, to between 21.8 and 25.1 million in 2000, and up to between 26.7 and 51.1 million in 2030. The report includes 22 tables, four maps, and nine figures. Appended are a glossary of technical terms and a list of 94 references (1953-80).