Population profile of Arusha region

This report, produced under A.I.D."s Arusha Planning/Village Development Project, provides a demographic profile of the Region to be used in planning the area"s long-term development. After reviewing Tanzania"s long tradition of demographic data collection, the author describes Arusha"s population in terms of its size, growth, geographic distribution, fertility, mortality, natural increase, migration, age and sex distribution, socioeconomic characteristics, and ethnicity. Various projections of population growth in Arusha Region and in its eight districts and in Arusha city for 1980-1995 are presented. All forecasts use the base population enumerated in the 1978 census and incorporate birth and death rates and sex and age distribution figures from the 1973 National Demographic Survey; migration, thought to be positive, is not included due to a lack of data. The Government of Tanzania"s population policy is assessed. Although having no formal policy (officials have described high population growth as simultaneously constraining and contributing to achievement of development goals), the Government has committed itself to a child-spacing program and to maternal and child health care. Contraception is quietly encouraged, but abortion is illegal. Given the demography of Arusha Region, the author recommends that A.I.D. support directly productive, income-generating activities rather than follow a basic needs strategy; special attention must be given to the role of women. The recommended program would indirectly contribute to reducing fertility and at the same time expand the economic base needed to support a growing population and to fund future provision of basic services. The text is highlighted by 30 tables and six figures. Appended are the methodology underlying the population projections, a description of the role of population projections in development planning, 1978 population data for Arusha Region and its districts, and a 17-item bibliography (1960-79).