Public expenditures and services as policy outcome predictors : a two - nation analysis for health and education

An inference often drawn from such analyses is that different levels of expenditure in particular policy areas imply related levels of service or actual outcomes. This paper examines the validity of this inference employing data on health and education policy for Turkey and West Malaysia. Multiple indicator indices are formed for service levels and policy outcome levels for the within-nation units of analysis. Then the relative potency of expenditures and services as policy outcome predictors is examined. Likewise, various regressions are examined which employ expenditures, services, and contextual variables as outcome predictors. Throughout the analysis, expenditures are found to be poor predictors, while service levels are relatively potent outcome predictors.