Second Brazil demographic analysis for a population policy

Special evaluation covers the period 3/84-11/84 and is based on interviews with CEPPD, USAID/B, and Brazilian officials. The project is proceeding well, although some activities are behind schedule. Despite initial delays (in, e.g., securing statistical data and appropriate software), population projections have now been completed for seven geographical regions of Brazil and distributed to a distinguished group of scientists and doctors who have been commissioned to write technical papers on the projections and their socioeconomic implications. Of 42 papers planned, 31 have been commissioned and are expected to be complete by 11/84; the remaining 11 are expected to be commissioned and completed by 1/85, although there has been some difficulty in identifying researchers willing to write on politically sensitive family planning themes. Also, lack of data on internal migration has made population projection in this area difficult. A successful meeting (with extensive media coverage) was held in Brasilia in 9/84 to promote federal parliamentarians" interest in population policy formulation and a second meeting is planned for 12/84. Plans for a state-level symposium, to be held 2/85, are well underway. There have been some problems in scheduling meetings, due mostly to conflicts with parliamentarians" political agenda. Two newsletters have been written and the newsletter mailing list has been revised. Recommendations are that: (1) TA be provided to help the project utilize findings from state contraceptive prevalence surveys; (2) a microcomputer and appropriate software be acquired to assist in population projections and facilitate development of population models for presentations at meetings and symposia; and (3) representatives of U.S. donor agencies not attend future parliamentarian meetings, in order to avoid the appearance of U.S. interference in these high-level political gatherings.