Supply and demand of millet and sorghum in Senegal

This report investigates the supply of and demand for millet and sorghum in order to determine how Senegal can achieve food self-sufficiency. Against background descriptions of the international and historical context of grain shortages and of the production and marketing of millet and sorghum in Senegal, the author indicates that study of these crops is relevant since most Senegalese are rural and are heavy consumers of millet and sorghum and because the Senegalese Government is committed to producing an instant millet and a millet/wheat bread and appears to be serious about food crop self-sufficiency as a result of the l972-73 Sahelian drought. The author develops an econometric model of the supply of and demand for millet and sorghum. Analysis shows that supply is positively related to the previous year"s prices for millet and sorghum and negatively related to the past year"s prices for groundnuts and rice. Demand appears positively related to the price for millet and sorghum as well as for imported rice; the relationship to income is unclear. Forecasting each determinant of supply and demand separately, the author predicts Senegal will be self-sufficient in millet and sorghum by 1985. However, this forecast does not take into account the availability of land, capital, labor, and the level of yields; assumes unchanging consumer preferences; and is based on incomplete data. The author thus recommends that the Senegalese Government: (l) increase the producer prices for millet and sorghum and for rice; (2) consider establishing a millet and sorghum buffer stock; (3) encourage higher millet and sorghum yields; (4) tax imported rice; and (5) reduce the cost of milling millet and sorghum. The author also suggests studying the interaction of the markets for groundnuts, millet, sorghum, cotton and maize to determine if price variability of a given import affects domestic production of or demand for that crop. Appended are discussions of rice and groundnuts in Senegal, the data employed by the author, and a list of 26 references (1962-79).