TRANSPORTATION PLANNING (ANNUAL REPORT)

Evaluation covers the period from project inception in 1974 through 4/20/76 and consists of a progress report of the contractor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). All planned first year work has been completed. Ethiopia was selected as the cooperating LDC, and a working agreement was signed with the Ethiopian Road Authority (ERA). With the help of Ethiopian case studies and data from IBRD"s TRRL project in Kenya, MIT"s Highway Cost Model (HCM) was adapted to local conditions and its capabilities were extended in regard to choice of technology and the time staging of investments in road construction. Resurfacing may also be staged through maintenance policy actions. Construction technologies, however, are now handled exogenously, as the HCM no longer provides detailed construction calculations. The planned framework for evaluating road network construction has been completed, including an extensive literature survey of the field of network analysis as it applies to transportation. In regard to phase two work, the refined HCM model was demonstrated on a current Ethiopian road project and was presented together with the time staging and network analysis model at the Highway Conference in Addis Ababa. The integration of the two models is now in progress, as is the incorporation of capital budgeting techniques into the integrated model. The demonstration of this integrated model and the training of counterpart personnel in its use has not yet begun due to the need to test the model further locally and to acquire suitable computer facilities. Work on the final MIT report has not yet begun. Other major accomplishments include preliminary analysis of the Chickwawa-Bangula Road in Malawi using the original HCM; a reduction in size of the HCM to meet the specifications of ERA"s proposed computer configuration; and presentation to ERA personnel of seminars on the logic, usefulness, and data requirements of the HCM. Evaluation is attached to PAR of 4/20/76 (PD-AAG-213-B1).