EVALUATION FRAMEWORK FOR TRANSPORTATION PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (PROJECT STATEMENT)

The project will unfold in three phases. In phase one, MIT will select a cooperating LDC on the basis of technical, logistic, and administrative competence, and will collect data on road types and levels, maintenance policies, vehicle mix, and user costs in that country. On this basis, and making significant use of data from IBRD"s TRRL-IRI project in Kenya, MIT will adapt the Highway Cost Model (HCM) it developed for IBRD to reflect host country conditions and to extend the model"s range. In regard to the latter, a framework will be developed for a time staging and network analysis model, that is, a model capable of evaluating investment alternatives for highway construction by determining the optimal period and scale of construction, as well as the economic, social, and environmental aspects of a given investment. In phase two, the refined HCM will be demonstrated on a host country project, and model runs will be compared with host country studies of that project. Next, the time staging and network analysis model will be developed and combined with the revised HCM to form a single model capable of assessing highway projects at the policy/planning and design levels. The combined model will be applied to a host country project. Finally, an evaluation framework will be developed for integrating the combined model with planning, programming, and budgeting (PPBS) techniques. In phase three, the integrated framework will be applied to select host country investment problems. MIT will train host country counterpart personnel, as well as its LDC graduate and undergraduates students, in the use of the new model. A handbook for transportation sector analysis developed during the project will be widely distributed to LDC"s and to development assistance agencies; and a utilization conference will be held to disseminate project results. MIT will draw up a final report describing the theoretical basis of the research, its uses, and what is needed to adapt its results to other LDC"s.