Accounting for alternative outcomes (in project planning)

THE FOUR TECHNIQUES DISCUSSED GIVE THE PROJECT DESIGNER A GRASP ON THE INHERENT VARIABILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HISTOGRAMS DIAGRAM ALTERNATIVE OUTCOMES WHICH PERMIT THE INSPECTION OF PATTERNS AND QUANTIFICATION OF SAMPLE STATISTICS. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS QUANTIFIES EXPERT JUDGMENTS ABOUT THE CHANCE OF SPECIFIC EVENTS OCCURRING. TWO TECHNIQUES (DECISION TREES AND CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS) ENABLE THE ANALYST TO DEAL WITH ALTERNATIVE OUTCOMES OF A PROJECT. THE DECISION TREE TECHNIQUE ACCOUNTS FOR ALTERNATIVES BY REPRESENTING AND ANALYZING THE CHOICE OF ACTION AND THE EXPECTED OUTCOME FOR EACH CHOICE. CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS HELPS A DECISION MAKER CHOOSE AMONG ALTERNATIVE PLANS DESIGNED FOR VARIOUS CONTINGENCIES.