Forecast and prediction (in project planning)

EXTRAPOLATIVE TECHNIQUES (EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTS AND REGRESSION FORECASTING) BASE PREDICTIONS OF FUTURE BEHAVIOR ON PAST PERFORMANCE DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE PROCESSES WHICH GENERATED THE DATA. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTS PROVIDE SHORTTIME FORECASTS OF VARIABLES BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM PAST DATA. REGRESSION FORECASTING IS A MATHEMATICAL TECHNIQUE FOR EXAMINING THE RELATION BETWEEN TWO OR MORE VARIABLES BASED ON PAST DATA VALUES. BOTH THESE TECHNIQUES ARE USEFUL IN FORECASTING DEMANDS FOR SERVICES OR GOODS AND FOR OBTAINING ECONOMIC FORECASTS. INTUITIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES (SCENARIOS AND DELPHI) COMBINE OBSERVATION OF PAST AND PRESENT CONDITIONS WITH PREDICTIONS FOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE, CONSTRAINTS, AND FORCES FOR CHANGE. SCENARIOS FORECAST THE FUTURE OF A SYSTEM BASED UPON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT INTERACTIONS AND EXTERNAL CONDITIONS. SCENARIOS HELP ILLUMINATE THE INTERACTIONS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND CULTURAL DIMENSIONS IN A FORM THAT PERMITS UNDERSTANDING MANY SUCH INTERACTIONS AT ONCE. THEY ARE USEFUL FOR POLICY DECISIONS. THE DELPHI IS A GROUP PROCESS TECHNIQUE FOR OBTAINING, COLLATING, AND DIRECTING EXPERT JUDGMENT TOWARDS A CONSENSUS ON A PARTICULAR TOPIC. THE EXPERTS INVOLVED ARE ABLE TO FOCUS ON AND DEBATE ISSUES ANONYMOUSLY BY MAIL THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF QUESTIONNAIRES.