Climate Change Adaptation in ANGOLA

Advancements in areas such as education, food security, and health are central to strengthening communities' resiliency to climate change, so investments in sustainable development across a range of sectors are crucial to increasing adaptive capacity. There is also a pressing need for policies, programs, and projects designed and implemented specifically to address the current and projected impacts of climate change. Temperature observations show that Angola has warmed significantly in recent decades. Mean annual temperature increased by about 1.5°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.33°C per decade. The rate of increase has been most rapid in the winter, at approximately 0.47°C per decade, and slowest in summer, at about 0.22°C per decade. Mean annual rainfall over Angola has decreased at an average rate of around 2 mm per month (2.4 percent) per decade between 1960 and 2006. However, precipitation data is spatially limited and the causes of this trend are not fully understood. Future climate change projections for Angola vary based on differences between models and assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions. Without significant emission reductions, median projections for the 2090s fall between 2.3°C and 4.5°C higher than the 1970-1999 average. The majority of climate models project average temperatures increases of more than 1°C by the 2030s compared to the 1970-1999 mean. Projections indicate that extremely hot days will become two to four times more frequent by the 2060s. The effect of increasing temperatures on total precipitation is uncertain, with projections ranging from -27 to +20 percent above or below the 1970-1999 mean by the 2090s. Climate change poses significant threats to Angolan production systems, infrastructure, and markets, and therefore livelihoods and food security. Studies have found that climate change would result in a reduction of total crop yield by the 2030s for all studied climate scenarios. Potential reductions in the yield of cassava, an important staple crop, are shown in a graphic. Another study reports reductions of up to approximately 30 percent in the yield of maize and wheat throughout southern Africa by the 2030s. Thorton et al. (2006) find a reduction of over 20 percent in the length of the growing period for many areas of southern and western Angola where livestock systems dominate. The potential health impacts of climate change are especially acute in Angola due to high levels of vulnerability and a relative lack of adaptive capacity with respect to technology and medical services. The effects of climate change on health are likely to include a greater incidence of heat-related mortality, increased numbers of people at risk of death, disease, and injury due to floods, storms, and other extreme events, and a possible increased burden of malnutrition due to agricultural impacts. The prevalence of malaria in the Angolan highlands could increase substantially by the 2080s, while malaria transmission rates in more low-lying areas could increase after periods of heavy rainfall. Approximately 30 percent of Angola's population lives within 100 km of the coast and migration to urban coastal areas has accelerated in recent decades. Sea-level rise projections indicate that sea levels in Angola could rise by more than a meter by the end of the century. Sea level rise of anywhere near this magnitude would render some low-lying areas of the Angolan coast uninhabitable and amplify damage from floods and storms by providing a higher base for storm surges. Fishing is an important livelihood activity in rural Angola, especially in the southern provinces of Benguela and Namibe, where the cool waters of the Benguela current provide a rich diversity of marine life. Any changes in the frequency, timing, or distribution of upwelling would influence production and likely bio.