Climate Change Adaptation in SENEGAL

Climate models suggest that West African countries will likely experience increased temperatures, decreased annual rainfall, and increased intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. These changes will significantly affect Senegal's socio-economic and environmental resources. Rises in average temperatures of about 0.9°C since 1960, an average of 0.2° per decade, have been observed in Senegal. Decreases in rainfall by 10-15 mm per decade and a shortening of the rainy season have also been noted. Increases in daily rainfall and in the frequency of short dry spells have been observed, particularly in the Senegal River Valley, Niyes, and Lower and Upper Casamance regions. Predicted future climate changes for Senegal include an increase by the 2060s of 1.1-3.1°C in mean annual temperatures from the observed 1970-99 mean of 27.8°C. Greater climate variability, including in the frequency and proportion of rainfall coming in intense and extreme rainfall events, is also expected. Sea level rise of up to 1 m by 2100 is predicted, as well as changes in annual precipitation ranging from a 38% decrease to a 21% increase from the 1970-99 average. The agricultural sector in Senegal is particularly vulnerable to climate change, employing more than 70% of the workforce and representing about 17% of the country's gross domestic product. The sector consists primarily of rainfed agriculture, which is especially vulnerable to increases in temperature, changes in timing and amount of rainfall, and increases in the frequency of dry spells and droughts. These consequences are likely to have negative impacts on agricultural production as well as health, economic development, and the environment. Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security in Senegal include inundation, degradation, and salinization of agricultural lands, declines in crop yields and biomass production, food shortages and price increases, rural-urban migration, destabilization of peasant livelihoods, and increases in bush fires and pest infestations. The Senegal River Valley, Niyes, and Lower and Upper Casamance regions are particularly vulnerable to declines in rainfall, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion, and floods, all of which pose challenges to food security. Water resources in Senegal are also vulnerable to climate change, with current and projected climate variability being the climate stressors of greatest concern. Higher temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall are likely to contribute to potential declines in available and accessible surface and groundwater resources, affecting the sustainability of livelihoods, food security, and health, as well as local, domestic, and foreign economic activity in Senegal. Coastal zones in Senegal are threatened by sea level rise, which is expected to increase coastal erosion, damage human settlements and infrastructure, contaminate available sources of fresh water, and negatively affect cultivation, flora, and fauna in areas near the coast. Sea level rise, warmer land and water temperatures, and stronger winds may also intensify upwelling patterns and alter the composition of coastal ecosystems. Wetlands in Senegal host many species of plants and animals, provide resources such as fisheries, shellfish, fuelwood, medicine, and agricultural products, and are relevant to the tourism industry. However, intense rainfall events, decreases in rainfall, increases in air and ocean temperature, reoccurring droughts, and sea level rise contribute to the degradation and destruction of freshwater ecosystems and wetlands, leading to loss in biodiversity, the colonization of invasive plant species, and the salinization of wetlands. Tropical and woodland forests in Senegal are also affected by climate change, which has already begun to affect vegetation and soil quality in two-thirds of northern Senegal, leading to high mortality rates of woodland vegetation and reducing biodiversity by 30%. Non-climate stressors, such as clearing of forest for land cultivation and grazing, mining activities, lack of forest resource management and policy enforcement, lack of alternative energy sources, and high demands for biomass and timber, also contribute to declines in forest land cover. The Senegalese government, international and national institutions, and organizations have begun to identify climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and threats, as well as to determine adaptation priorities, develop adaptation strategies, and mainstream adaptation into development planning. However, an implementation gap remains between existing adaptation plans and project realization, due to financial constraints and limits in available, accessible, and locally derived data on climate change and its impacts on various sectors and communities.