Elections in Egypt: The Electoral Framework in Egypt’s Continuing Transition: February 2011 – September 2013

Inspired by the events in Tunisia, Egyptians organized and participated in mass protests to oust President Hosni Mubarak. When he stepped down on February 11, 2011, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) occupied the power vacuum to lead the political process forward. The Supreme Council represented military leadership – a historically powerful establishment in Egypt – and was the only institution with the resources and organization immediately able and willing to take charge. Since then, Egypt has held two referendums and three elections; while none were perfect, each one met minimum technical international standards of acceptability. Nevertheless, increasing popular discontent with President Mohamed Morsi and his government culminated in widespread, sustained mass demonstrations in June and July 2013. On July 3, 2013, General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi, a military general who is Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces and the Minister of Defense, announced the removal of President Morsi. This was done with a great deal of popular support. General Sisi then suspended the 2012 Constitution of Egypt and appointed the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court Adly Mansour as Interim President. On July 8, President Mansour issued a constitutional declaration that serves as an interim constitution and provides a road map for a return to civilian rule under a new constitution that is to be put to the people in a referendum. The 2013 road map envisaged a return to civilian rule after a transition period of about nine months. However, as discussed within this paper, one year now seems the minimum possible time. The road map also includes a plan for drafting amendments to the 2012 constitution and a constitutional referendum, followed by elections for the House of Representatives (HoR) and presidency. So far, the transition period governed by this road map has been marked by ongoing demonstrations by President Morsi supporters who are outraged by his ouster. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces have resulted in many deaths and injuries on all sides. These events are likely to have significant consequences for Egypt's democratic prospects, including the credibility of elections, but the precise effects remain unclear at the time of writing. The 2013 road map envisions elections for the HoR after a referendum has approved amendments to the 2012 constitution. This paper traces the evolution of the legal framework for elections to the HoR (formerly known as the People's Assembly) since the January 2011 revolution. It focuses on changes to the constitutional framework, Law 38/1972 on the People's Assembly (LOPA) and Law 73/1956 on the Regulation of the Exercise of Political Rights (LEPR). The electoral provisions of the 2012 constitution are discussed in detail, including the legislature, presidency, judicial authorities, and the National Elections Commission. The 2012 constitution introduced significant changes to the electoral framework, including the establishment of a new legislature and the regulation of the exercise of political rights. The constitution also introduced a new electoral system for the HoR, which is based on a combination of proportional representation and first-past-the-post systems. The allocation of seats to governorates and the delimitation of boundaries of electoral districts and constituencies are also governed by the 2012 constitution. The evolution of the two main electoral laws governing HoR elections (LOPA and LEPR) under the 2012 constitution is analyzed in detail. The January 2013 amendments to LOPA and LEPR introduced significant changes to the electoral framework, including the establishment of a new electoral commission and the regulation of campaign finance. The Supreme Constitutional Court's rulings on the amendments to LOPA and LEPR are also discussed, including the SCC's February 18, 2013 ruling and the SCC's May 26, 2013 ruling. The initial changes in the electoral framework resulting from the overthrow of President Morsi in July 2013 are outlined in detail. The constitutional declaration issued on July 8, 2013, provides a road map for a return to civilian rule under a new constitution that is to be put to the people in a referendum. The declaration also includes a plan for drafting amendments to the 2012 constitution and a constitutional referendum, followed by elections for the HoR and presidency. The timetable of electoral events provided for in the constitutional declaration is also discussed, including the expected dates for the referendum and the elections.