Estimation of recent trends in fertility and mortality in Bangladesh

km. in 1979 -- is one of the world"s most densely populated countries, reliable population statistics needed to accurately predict demographic trends are lacking. This report estimates data and trends in (1) fertility; (2) mortality; (3) marital status; (4) regional variations; and (5) natural increase from 1960 to 1975. Estimation is difficult because vital events are not routinely registered; censuses are unreliable, and population shocks (e.g., natural disasters, Hindu migration) have occurred. Estimates of fertility vary widely depending on which technique is used, but a figure in the range of 6.8-7.3 births per 1,000 is likely. Aside from a slight decrease in fertility brought on by late marriages, no general trend in fertility is evident for the period. The incidence of widowhood has declined at a fairly rapid rate and probably caused a small increase in fertility. The age of first marriage rose 1.5 years for both men and women. Mortality information for Bangladesh consists of indicators which reflect but do not measure mortality and data derived from sample surveys. Infant mortality fluctuated between 130 and 160 per 1,000 from the late 1950"s to 1975, with child mortality (ages 1-4 years) somewhat higher than infant mortality; despite year-to-year variations, no underlying trend was evidenced. Adult mortality was 18 per 1,000 in the mid-1960"s; 17 per 1,000 in the mid-1970"s. In terms of overall mortality, between 1964-65 and 1973-74, life expectancy at birth rose from 48.6 to 51.6 years for men and from 47.6 to 49.6 years for women. In terms of regional differences, fertility was highest in Rajshahi, followed by Khulna and Dacca, and lowest in Chittagong. Child mortality did not appear to vary by region. Although definitive estimates are not possible, it is likely that population growth increased between 1964 and 1974, primarily due to the drop in adult mortality. It is also probable that the female population grew faster (2.9-3.2%) than the male population (2.8-3.0%). A glossary of terms and a 51-item bibliography (1949-81) are appended.