FERTILITY AND MORTALITY CHANGES IN HONDURAS, 1950-1974

This fact, plus the wealth of various types of demographic data available, make Honduras an ideal subject for this case study, one of a series of national population studies, of changes in mortality, fertility, and population growth during the period 1950-74. Estimated fertility rates were gleaned from birth registers and the age structure of the population and were adjusted to account for inflated registration of births and underregistration in the 1974 census. Comparison of the resulting fertility estimates for each year from 1951 to 1974 shows fertility rising from 6.74% in 1951 to a peak of 7.75% in the early 1960"s and then declining somewhat in the mid-1970"s. Despite possible inaccuracies, primarily due to increasingly complete enumeration from 1945 to 1961 followed by a less complete enumeration in 1974, it is clear that fertility is very high and has been high -- approximately 50 per 1,000 -- since the early 1950"s. Useful information on mortality is scarce since the registration of deaths was not consistent throughout this period. Stable population analysis of the 1950 age distribution using a 1.5% annual growth rate yields a crude death rate in excess of 30 per 1,000 for that year. Although doubts about the accuracy of the 1950 data on age distribution make these estimates uncertain, it does appear that mortality fell to 19 per 1,000 during 1950-61 and further decreased to 14 per 1,000 by 1974. Although lack of data on birthplace for both Honduras and the surrounding countries make it difficult to discern the impact of international migration, it appears that the number of migrants -- mostly from El Salvador -- has been small. Thus, overall population growth is equal to the population"s net increase, i.e., the base population as increased by births and decreased by deaths. On the basis of this assumption, the annual growth rate was estimated at 1.5% for 1950, 3.3% for 1961, and 3.6% for the early 1970"s. A glossary of terms and a 14-item bibliography (1964-81) are appended.