EVALUATION OF THE CENSUS BUREAU'S COMPUTATION AND ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DATA PROJECT (4/26/79-7/18/79)

with computation and analysis of population data. Evaluation covers the period 1/1/78-4/26/79 and is based on a review of project documents and reports and interviews with A.I.D. and BUCEN personnel. BUCEN's work is generally high quality and up-to-date, as is evident from its 1977 report, "World Population". BUCEN has a very comprehensive collection of world population data and has established a network of international contacts. Nevertheless, BUCEN should not be expected to provide an "early warning system" of fertility and mortality changes. Thus far, 10 country profiles have been published and four drafted. Although these profiles contain much useful information, they could be substantially improved by: (1) modifying them to reflect the size and importance of the individual countries; (2) including several pages of analysis for each country -- summarizing demographic levels and trends, and relating data to changes in socioeconomic development and availability of family planning services; (3) reducing the number of "adjustments" of total population; (4) introducing more flexibility, with the nature of the profile dependent upon the kinds of data available for an individual country; (5) changing the procedures for deriving short-term projections (rather than basing them on long-term multiple projects, BUCEN should extrapolate from current data on vital rates and population growth); (6) evaluating the quality of census data in more depth than is possible with the Age-Sex Accuracy Index and reporting these checks fully in an appendix; (7) reducing preparation time; and (8) determining exactly what kind of information is needed and by whom. In addition, BUCEN should devote more attention to urban growth and manpower problem; and should take steps to improve the cost effectiveness of many of its activities. With regard to the AID/BUCEN working relationship, the authors feel that both parties have exaggerated their differences and call for more understanding on the part of the Office of Population and greater flexibility from BUCEN.