Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

The region comprises Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Banana is a staple food in the region, providing 3-22% of total calorie consumption per capita and 147 kcal daily consumption per person, which is 15 times the world's average and 6 times Africa's average. Banana production in the region is threatened by the outbreak and spread of Xanthomonas wilt disease (BXW), caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum (Xcm). BXW affects both the quantity and quality of fruits, resulting in crop losses of up to 100%. The disease is currently controlled using cultural practices, such as removing the male bud, using sterilized farm tools, and destroying single infected stems. However, the level of BXW control by cultural practices can be inconsistent due to non-compliance by farmers and traders. To address the BXW disease, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) has developed genetically modified (GM) varieties resistant to BXW. The transgenic varieties were developed through constitutively expressing Hypersensitive Response Assisting Protein (Hrap) or Plant Ferredoxin Like Protein (Pflp) gene from sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum). The wilt-resistant genes extracted from pepper are not listed as a potential allergen and are safe for human consumption. The GM banana plants have been evaluated in Uganda and have shown absolute resistance to Xcm. The GM banana is likely to be released for multiplication, distribution, and commercialization in 2020. The study assesses the potential impact of the GM varieties on the economic benefits of production prior to their release, dissemination, and commercial sale to farmers. The study's objectives are two-fold: to assess production and consumption patterns and estimate a baseline scenario for production and consumption of bananas in the Great Lakes Region. The study uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents, and key informants in the Great Lakes Region. The economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana. The study finds that the expected initial adoption rate of GM banana ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. The study also finds that the aggregate benefits of GM banana vary substantially across the target countries, ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, with the highest benefits in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high. The study concludes that the findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries.