FERTILIZER PROMOTION

Evaluation covers the period 2/80-6/81 and is based on a review of project documents and site visits. Since A.I.D. fertilizer is commingled with other fertilizer and cannot be tracked as such, progress is measured by sub-sector performance, which was highly creditable despite adverse external factors. Fertilizer consumption for the 1979-80 period increased by 3% and for the 1980-81 period by 6%. Meeting the overall target of increasing fertilizer consumption by 10% for each of the project"s 4 years, for a total of 25 million metric tons of fertilizer consumed, will depend on meeting targets set for 1981-82 (6.6 million) and 1982-83 (7.6 million). Drought and fertilizer price increases were the main reasons for the shortfall in fertilizer consumption. The project was not adversely affected by internal factors. In fact, accelerated fertilizer imports by the Government of India (GOI) -- 1980-81 imports were up 25% over the 1979-80 period -- helped maintain the consumption rates achieved in spite of domestic production shortfalls. A second output indicator, to ensure adequate fertilizer supply in more remote, "lagging" areas, is being met by a GOI program to subsidize transport of fertilizer to all 5,000 block headquarters in the country and by initiation of the GOI"s Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Campaign (IFPC), temporarily postponed due to materials shortages, in 65 districts. Plans for A.I.D. financing of IFPC studies have been abandoned. A USAID analysis showed that small farmers, who constitute 65% of all fertilizer users, have access to fertilizer in the market and use it profitably and more extensively than large farmers. The markets, or other factors, do not discriminate against small farmers, but do need to be expanded to more remote areas. This goal is currently being pursued. The project has taught the need to relate fertilizer import projects to the attainment of sector development goals. It is recommended that use of the loan balance of $34.4 million be finalized.