FUTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR AGRICULTURAL PLANNING 1980 - 2000 AD

Providing such a characterization, this analysis predicts major problems confronting economic planners that may occur in the absence of a well-defined and implemented development strategy. The major economic, demographic, and institutional events expected to occur in Lesotho during the period 1980-2000 include the following: (1) an increase in population by 60%, and growth in the labor force and in rural households to nearly 1 million and 337,000, respectively; (2) a 50% decrease in migrant employment opportunities, resulting in requirements for a net addition of over 20,000 new domestic jobs; (3) extreme fluctuation in the amount of rainfall in the 1980"s and 1990"s which will substantially reduce crop yields; (4) completion of an extensive network of mountain and lowland feeder roads; (5) and the implementation of the Land Act of 1979 which will restrict land allocations to farmers already allocated land, increase the average size of operated farm units, and encourage investment through increased land tenure security. Without interventions to lessen the severity of these trends, the following course of events is predicted. The annual need for jobs will remain constant in the near future, exceeding the capacities of both the agricultural and commerce and industry sectors to provide employment. Unfavorable climatic conditions will depress agricultural production, which will in turn erode per capita agricultural incomes. Close analysis of the rural household situation reveals that economic disparity and a stratified social structure may evolve. The authors offer a broad number of recommendations in the areas of employment and income generation and distribution, and present pro"s and con"s of an economic dispersion strategy to halt foreseeable rural-urban migrations and urban plight. A 20-item bibliography (1963-80) is appended.