KENAF DEMAND IN THAILAND

The study has a twofold purpose; first, it forms part of a larger project conducted by the Thai Department of Agricultural Economics (DAE) to develop a comprehensive picture of the Thai agricultural economy; secondly, the project will be incorporated into DAE"s marketing program, where it will be instrumental in analyzing short-term demand, price forecasting, and policies related to individual commodity markets. The report opens with a discussion of production conditions and marketing processes for Thai kenaf. A statistical model of the Thai kenaf market is subsequently developed; variables include yearly domestic consumption of kenaf, exports, amount of year-end stocks, and average foreign and domestic prices. Next, problems inherent in the available data are discussed and statistical adjustments are explained. Finally, parameter estimates for the equations developed in the model are presented and the model"s applicability to forecasting and analysis is assessed.