STRUCTURE OF A RECURSIVE MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN THAILAND

The project is part of a larger joint effort by the Thai Division of Agricultural Economics and Iowa State University to develop wide range of models, from farm-level to macroeconomic, for analyzing Thai agricultural policy. This report describes progress on linking the national and interregional linear programming model of agriculture with the macroeconomic model of the Thai economy. The recursive model will subsequently be developed from the linkage, and will be useful in relating agricultural policy to the non-agricultural sector and vice versa. In this report, previous research is reviewed, objectives of the linkage are summarized, and phases of the planning process (i.e., discussion, formulation, and monitoring) are explained. Then the three basic factors involved in the planned linkage are outlined. These are: (1) an annual data update, (2) the structure and a data content of the agricultural model, and (3) the structure and data content of the macroeconomic model. Model equations, a bibliography, and list of variables are appended.