MACROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THAILAND, 1962-1974

The models constitute a transition phase in a sector analysis project undertaken jointly by the Thai Division of Agricultural Economics and Iowa State University to assess Thailand"s economic policies, particularly those related to agriculture. The report opens with a brief history of the overall project and reviews the methodology of large econometric model construction. Special considerations regarding the construction of models for developing countries are also discussed. The report next provides detailed information on the two macroeconomic models. Model I is linear in parameters and in variables; Model II is linear in parameters and nonlinear in variables. Model equations are provided, accompanied by a discussion of equation specification. The report also provides results of a reduced form simulation of Model I and of a GaussSeidel simulation of Model II. Suggestions are offered for further research, and appendices give extensive data for each model.