Monitoring population growth in Arusha region : population data collection systems and suggestions for improvement

This document reports on a study to assist the Arusha Regional Planning Office in assessing available population data and estimating fertility, mortality, and migration; in developing a village-level population data collection and reporting system; and in evaluating the prospects for developing a pilot vital statistics collection system. Based on past censuses and village surveys and on discussions with Government and Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party officials, annual population growth in the Region is estimated at 3.8% - a rate which will double the population in 19 years. Natural increase is the major cause of growth in agricultural districts; in-migration is a significant factor in pastoral districts. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population growth are tabulated and population growth is projected for the Region and its seven Districts. The two present village-level population data collection systems are the decennial national census and the CCM Party village reporting system. The census provides better data, but the CCM system could potentially supply more accurate and timely information by using its grassroots-level cell leaders. The author recommends that cell leaders and village secretaries be provided forms for recording population and migration information which could later be expanded to meet other information needs. Population data should be enumerated once a year, but cell leaders should report births and deaths to village secretaries as they occur. Registration of births and deaths in the Region is required only in Arusha Town and even there gross underreporting - due to lack of public awareness of the importance of registering vital events - is the norm. Registration could be increased substantially if the registrar"s office were better coordinated with hospitals and health centers. Compulsory registration cannot yet be instituted because villages lack adequate infrastructure. Appended are a report on a consulative visit to Arusha Region, sample data collection and reporting forms, and various population data.