PL-480 Title I : the Egyptian case

480 Title I program in Egypt (reinstated in 1974 following a break in 1967) are assessed in light of Government of Egypt (GOE) policies and food needs. Also assessed is the program's impact on U.S. objectives. Major conclusions are: (1) To the extent that it reduces the cost of food imports essential to the GOE's policy of ensuring a plentiful supply of cheap bread, Title I supports policies that act as disincentives to farmers (despite evidence that improved technologies could increase production by 50%); 1967-74 data support the inference of a disincentive effect. Population growth and other pressures, however, may force the GOE to improve domestic production; options for doing so are presented. (2) Wheat distribution by the Ministry of Supply tends to strengthen the Ministry's control over all elements of the food distribution chain, possibly making it difficult to reorient the system - which has eliminated or severely reduced regionally centered private marketing and processing of wheat and wheat flour - toward increased local production. (3) General data (it is almost impossible to disaggregate Title I wheat from the total supply) show that daily per capita caloric intake has reached nearly 2,800 and that infant mortality increases when the wheat supply is interrupted, but also that there may be increased obesity and diabetes due to high carbohydrate intake. (4) Self-help provisions have been poorly monitored by USAID/E, although policy dialogue, Egyptian coordination, and the specificity of the agreements have improved since 1979. (5) Title I, which the GOE considers critical to U.S.-Egyptian relations, has helped ensure the U.S. foreign policy objective - which has been overriding - of Egyptian stability, a key factor in the Mideast peace process. (6) Marketing and budgetary effects have been limited. The United States should continue to encourage GOE efforts to adjust its agricultural pricing policy in order to ensure that this largest of all Title I programs fully complies with the letter and spirit of recent P.L. 480 legislation and U.S. development policy initiatives. Included are 25 tables, 13 figures, several complementary analyses, and a 40-item bibliography (1968-82).