PROGRAM GRANT (GOVERNMENT OF BOTSWANA)

SINCE NO LOGFRAME IS INVOLVED, THE EVALUATION, WHICH IS BASED ON GOB RECORDS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH GOB OFFICIALS, DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL THE ELEMENTS OF THE PES FORMAT. EVALUATION OF THE UTILITY OF THE PROGRAM GRANT DEPENDS ON A DETERMINATION OF: (1) THE REAL BUDGET AS COMPARED TO THE BUDGET ANTICIPATED IN GOB"S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDP IV); AND (2) THE SPEED OF GOB IMPLEMENTATION OF PROGRAMS FUNDED BY THE GRANT. NDP IV ESTIMATES FOR 1976-80 WERE: (1) REVENUES: P380 MILLION; (2) EXPENDITURES: P282 MILLION; (3) SURPLUS: P98 MILLION. SURPLUS WAS TO PROVIDE P54 MILLION OF TOTAL P213 MILLION TARGETED FOR DEVELOPMENT NEEDS. ACTUAL FIGURES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE: (1) REVENUES: P393 MILLION; (2) EXPENDITURES: P312 MILLION; (3) SURPLUS: P81 MILLION. DOMESTIC FUNDS PROVIDED ONLY P35 MILLION FOR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS AND TOTAL FUNDING FOR LATTER WAS DOWN BY P23 MILLION, EVEN WITH THE HELP OF GRANT AND OTHER DONOR FUNDS. THIS SHORTFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO P8 MILLION DURING 1978-80. BUDGETARY CONSIDERATIONS, THEREFORE, SUPPORT THE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE NECESSITY OF THE PROGRAM GRANT. THIS CONCLUSION IS NOT INVALIDATED BY THE FACT THAT THE GOB GRANTED LARGE SALARY INCREASES IN 1977-78. REAL SALARIES HAD FALLEN, DUE TO A 26% INCREASE IN THE COST OF LIVING. THE REAL PROBLEM, HOWEVER, MAY NOT BE THE AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS, BUT THE GOB"S ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY. EVIDENCE ON THIS POINT IS MIXED. GOB IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LOAN HAS BEEN COMMENDABLE (P4.9 MILLION OF ESTIMATED P5.2 MILLION SPENT), AND ESPECIALLY RAPID IN REGARD TO LARGER ACTIVITIES. OVERALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO THE APPROPRIATENESS OF THE PROGRAM GRANT IN ACHIEVING PROJECT PURPOSE. TO BE EFFECTIVE, HOWEVER, THE PROGRAM GRANT MECHANISM REQUIRES AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GRANTOR AND THE GRANTEE, SUCH AS EXISTS BETWEEN USAID AND GOB, ON THE DIRECTION OF DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS.