RAPID: Population and Development in Malawi

The country aspires to become a technologically driven middle-income country by 2020, with equal opportunities for all citizens and active participation in social services, cultural and religious values, and environmental sustainability. Two key frameworks guide Malawi's development towards this vision: the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) 2006-2011 and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The MGDS aims to reduce poverty through sustainable economic growth and infrastructure development, while the MDGs aim to meet specific targets by 2015. Malawi's rapid population growth poses significant challenges to current and future progress in national economic growth, development, and health. The population increased by 32% in a single decade (from 1998 to 2008), resulting in substantial present and future consequences for the social and economic sectors. The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning is instrumental in the implementation of the MGDS and has a vested interest in understanding how population factors can affect the execution of sectoral strategies. The Population Unit within the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning provides necessary technical input and collaborates with planning units to ensure the integration of population variables into development plans. The briefing book aims to raise awareness about the impact of rapid population growth on Malawi's development. It includes projections of population growth from 2008 to 2040 based on two hypothetical population scenarios. One scenario assumes that women in Malawi will continue to have 5.7 children on average during their lifetime, while the other scenario assumes a gradual decline in fertility to three children per woman. Both scenarios take into account the effect of AIDS-related deaths. The first scenario with continued high fertility shows the population growing from about 13 million people in 2008 to 38 million people in 2040. By contrast, the second scenario with lower fertility shows an increase from about 13 million people to 30 million. By 2040, Malawi would have over 8 million fewer people if women were to have three children instead of nearly six. The rapid pace of population growth in Malawi can hinder current and future progress in national economic growth, development, and health. The population growth rate has substantial present and future consequences for the social and economic sectors, including education, health, agriculture, and food security. A slower population growth rate would result in less pressure on the government budget to provide free primary education and public health services, saving the government K116 billion (US$751 million) in education and K226 billion (US$1.5 billion) in health over a 30-year period. Additionally, pressure on the government to provide food subsidies or to subsidise maize seeds and production would decrease. Slower population growth would also lessen land pressure and alleviate some of the environmental consequences due to overexploitation, deforestation, erosion, and loss of soil fertility. Malawi is in a position to influence its population growth rate because of the government's demonstrated commitment to increasing access to family planning for women and men throughout the country. Improving access and uptake of contraceptives will lead to slower population growth. The Government of Malawi will have increased funds available to provide free primary education, a reliable public health system, and more employment opportunities for a smaller population. In turn, Malawi will have more opportunity to achieve economic growth and middle-income status.