Report on the Possible Impact of New Transmission Gas Pipelines and LNG Plants on the Price of Natural Gas for End-Customers in BiH

The Energy Policy Activity (EPA) in BiH has conducted a study to assess the possible impact of these new infrastructure projects on the price of natural gas for end-customers in BiH. The study focuses on two possible supply routes: the Southern Interconnection between BiH and Croatia, and the New Eastern Interconnection between BiH and Serbia. The Southern Interconnection would enable the supply of gas to the BiH market using the new route of the interconnection gas pipeline and allow the gasification of new parts of BiH. This would also enable the use of natural gas from new supply sources, such as the LNG terminal on the island of Krk, which is expected to be commissioned in early 2021. The New Eastern Interconnection would connect to the existing transmission pipeline in Serbia and enable a new supply route for BiH. However, the branch of the Turkish Stream running through Serbia would also connect to the existing transmission pipeline in several places, providing an alternative supply route for BiH. The study examines the natural gas procurement options for traders from BiH after the construction of the Southern Interconnection. Two options are considered: Option 1, where BiH traders contract the purchase and transmission of gas through Croatia, and Option 2, where BiH traders contract the purchase and transmission of gas through Serbia. The study also presents examples of gas price calculations for different supply scenarios for BiH. The prices of gas at the exit points from Croatia and Serbia are calculated, as well as the prices of gas depending on the supply route. The study concludes that the use of the new interconnection and new source would significantly raise the level of security of gas supply for all BiH consumers. The study highlights the importance of considering the natural gas market after the Third Energy Package, which introduced significant changes to the European gas market. The study also emphasizes the need to consider the traditional long-term contracts and the natural gas market after the Third Energy Package. The study's findings are based on a detailed analysis of the natural gas market in BiH and the potential impact of the new infrastructure projects on the price of natural gas for end-customers. The study provides a comprehensive overview of the natural gas market in BiH and the opportunities and challenges associated with the new infrastructure projects. The study's recommendations are aimed at policymakers and stakeholders in BiH, highlighting the need to consider the natural gas market after the Third Energy Package and the importance of ensuring a secure and reliable supply of natural gas to all BiH consumers. The study's findings and recommendations are expected to inform the development of policies and strategies to ensure a secure and reliable supply of natural gas to BiH consumers. The study's methodology is based on a detailed analysis of the natural gas market in BiH and the potential impact of the new infrastructure projects on the price of natural gas for end-customers. The study uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including data analysis and expert interviews, to assess the potential impact of the new infrastructure projects on the natural gas market in BiH. The study's results are presented in a clear and concise manner, providing a comprehensive overview of the natural gas market in BiH and the opportunities and challenges associated with the new infrastructure projects. The study's findings and recommendations are expected to inform the development of policies and strategies to ensure a secure and reliable supply of natural gas to BiH consumers.