short-run public reactions to food subsidy cuts in selected sub-Saharan and North African countries

This study examines the effects of nominal consumer price increases in four African countries - Morocco, Tunisia, Senegal, and Madagascar - to determine the short-term causes of such disturbances. Of 13 increases in food grain prices studied, only two prompted serious rioting and death - Morocco in 6/81 and Tunisia in 1/84. Rioting also occurred in Morocco in 1/84 due to rumors of a grain price increase, plus actual price increases for other staples. In the other cases, there was little or no public disturbance. The study concludes, inter alia, that: large-scale violence is unusual; "pocket book" impact is only one factor; the population may view price hikes as part of a general inflationary trend; availability of substitute staples at competitive prices is not likely to dampen public reaction; organized opposition only plays a minor role in unrest, which is usually spontaneous; measures believed to be equitable and part of a plausible economic recovery plan are less likely to set off protest; government legitimacy affects the probability of unrest; and security forces can effectively deter organized, but not spontaneous, unrest.