Food aid and the African food crisis

The study reviews food production, consumption, imports, and food aid receipts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe during 1966-83. Using 3 scenarios (base, optimistic, and crisis), the authors assess the sensitivity of food availability to changes in other food system variables (e.g., weather, foreign exchange, and producer prices), and project food availability and food aid needs to 1990. Results suggest that recurrent food emergencies, such as those recently affecting Ethiopia, Sudan, and the Sahel countries, may cause food aid shipments in 1990 to be 5-8 times as high as those in 1981-83. However, chronic food gaps and declining per capita food production cannot be alleviated solely through structural and emergency food aid, but require increased investment in agricultural technologies and transportation infrastructure as well as reforms in food strategy and economic policy. Improved policies and increased foreign exchange earnings could help about half the study countries to satisfy their consumption needs from domestic production. (Author abstract, modified)