Status of demographic data relating to school age populations in selected developing countries

Its purpose is to describe the range of error in past estimates, to compare them to current data, and to evaluate a potential range in the size of the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups in 12 large developing countries. It addresses the following questions: (1) What was the projected size of the school-age population in 1990 in projections performed in the early 1980"s and how far off were those projections? (2) To what degree have the many censuses conducted around 1990 changed the above outlook? (3) How have recent fertility trends affected the numbers of children in school ages and were changes in fertility anticipated? and (4) Given the above, what is the prospect for school-age population sizes in 2000? As will be seen in the individual country reports, the large number of censuses taken in the 1990 "round" have changed the size of estimates. For most countries, however, only total counts are available at this writing. The processing of age-sex detail is a slow procedure; for India and Bangladesh, the expected date of availability is sometime in 1993. However, it is important to remember that these censuses afford a once in a decade opportunity to reevaluate each country"s demographic situation. The main sources utilized are as follows. First, the UN Population Division"s Assessment provides a standard source which is the most widely used; the assessment is published every two years. The 1992 series is nearly complete and is expected to be released in mid-Summer 1992. In Table 1 the UN"s 1980 and 1990 projections are shown for comparative purposes; this allows an examination of just what the expectations were in 1980 and how they had changed by 1990. The UN produces three main series, high, medium, and low. The medium series is shown since it is the most frequently used. Similarly, the World Bank"s projections are shown in Table 1 for comparison. The most recent edition to publish age distributions is the 1989-1990 series. These projections are generally close to the UN"s, but in a few cases the Bank"s underlying assumptions regarding future trends in fertility differ significantly from the UN, yielding different population sizes. A third set, from the International Data Base of the Center for International Research (CIR) of the U.S. Bureau of the Census is shown. These data are from the 1992 files of this continuously updated database. CIR population estimates often tend to run higher than the other sources since the CIR tends to make greater adjustments for undercounts. It is important to keep in mind that published estimates, when they appear in print, may be outdated. Large studies, such as the UN"s Assessment, are quite time consuming from the evaluation of new data to the actual printing of the volume. Thus, work on the 1990 Assessment began in 1989 and was completed in early 1990. It is obvious that no data that became available after that point could have been included. In this inventory, it is evident that projections of school-age populations are in need of revision, particularly in the light of new censuses. The format of the country reports is as follows. The Executive Summary gives our current recommendation on which estimate to use for the 1990 school-age population. Second, "Extreme Range of Past and Current Estimates" shows what had been projected for 1990 about ten years ago compared to a likely upper bound today. This is meant only as an indication of the approximate size of the range. The differences between the two figures results from not one, but a variety of factors which differ from country to country including census counts, fertility trends, and different estimating techniques and assumptions. Third, a likely range for 2000 is shown. Although useful, such a range can only be taken as a preliminary evaluation. In nearly all cases, new projections need to be run to analyze the effects of a variety of factors on the 2000 population size. Finally, a more extensive discussion of the data is provided for each country, with reference to Tables 1 and 2 (on age - sex distribution and fertility, respectively) and Figures 1 and 2 (charts showing school-age population) and Figure 3 (a population pyramid). (Author abstract)