The Changing Food Expenditure Patterns and Trends in Zambia: Implications on Agricultural Policies

This transformation is expected to drive a shift in consumption patterns over time. However, there is a lack of evidence on how food expenditure patterns have changed among households in urban and rural Zambia. The failure to recognize these changes may have led to a mismatch between agricultural policies and the changing consumer preferences. The study aimed to understand the changing food expenditure patterns in Zambia and the implications of this transformation on food policy, food market development, and rural development. The main objectives of the study were to discuss the main determinants of food expenditure patterns among Zambia's households, determine how household food expenditure patterns have changed over the years, and examine how food expenditure patterns vary between rural and urban households and across different income groups. The study used the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data collected in 1996, 1998, 2010, and 2015 by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of Zambia as the main source of data. Comparisons of expenditure shares were done for each of the food categories across the different years. The analysis of expenditure patterns of households was conducted to determine changes in consumption patterns using the LCMS datasets of 1996, 1998, 2010, and 2015. The expenditure share of each food item out of total food expenditure (expressed as a percentage) was used as an indicator of consumption. Food items were categorized into sub-groups such as food groups, commodity groups, and level of processing. To examine the variation in expenditure patterns across the different income groups, households were further grouped into four quartile groups. Income elasticity of food expenditures was computed for the main food commodity items to examine the responsiveness of expenditure to income growth. The study found that there have been major declines in the shares of food expenditure on maize among rural and urban households between 1996 and 2015. Corresponding to the drop in maize expenditure shares, urban households showed a significant increase in wheat expenditure shares while rural households reduced the share of other coarse grains and tubers. Wealthier households spent larger shares of their food expenditure on wheat, rice, and potatoes (wheat shares were higher than maize). While poorest households have reduced their share of maize expenditures, they have not sufficiently substituted with other staples in their staple food basket. The transformation of food expenditure patterns is evident mostly among the high-income households, mainly in urban areas. Wealthier households increased their share of expenditure on animal foods much more than poorer households. At the same time, poorer households doubled the expenditure share on vegetables. The low share of animal foods in poor households' diets and the doubling vegetables share might imply an increase in undernourishment among poor households mainly in rural areas. Overall, the changing pattern of food expenditure is consistent with rising incomes and rapid urbanization. However, the disparities between the different income groups and between rural and urban areas are indicative of the rise in income inequality both in urban and rural parts of Zambia. Fish remains the major source of proteins among poor households whose expenditure share has remained quite high in both rural and urban areas as well as across income groups. By contrast, the shares of beef and dairy products in households' food budgets have fallen even among the wealthier households, while the shares of poultry and eggs have experienced growth in rural and urban areas across all income groups. There has been an increase in the expenditure shares of perishable and processed food in both rural and urban areas, which presents opportunities in agro-processing horticultural and fresh produce sub-sectors. The study recommends that the government needs to reduce its excessive focus on maize and encourage diversification in food production systems including the production of various crops such as horticultural products, rice, potatoes, and wheat as well as animal production and fish. The government also needs to strengthen the local production capacity of fish to reduce the deficit through aquaculture development. Additionally, the government needs to strengthen the urban-rural linkages and resolve the marketing constraints that impede rural producers. There is a need for policies that encourage private sector investment in agricultural value chains and be able to respond effectively to changing demand patterns in urban and rural areas.