The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Uganda’s agricultural sector

The sector is also a significant contributor to export earnings, with over 50% of Uganda's exports coming from agriculture. Additionally, agriculture is a major source of raw materials for industries, with agro-processing accounting for 60% of manufacturing. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the agricultural sector in Uganda. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, staple food prices experienced a slight spike in March and April, followed by a stable or slight decline through to August. Maize prices rose rapidly in the early weeks of the COVID-19 lockdown, but remained within the normal range. Other staples mirrored this trend, with food prices currently remaining close to 2019 levels and the five-year average. The pandemic has also led to a decline in effective demand for food, with schools, hotels, lodges, restaurants, and caterers experiencing reduced household incomes. This decline in demand has resulted in a decrease in the prices of staple food crops, with beans, millet, sorghum, and maize experiencing a slight decline in nominal retail prices in selected markets. The pandemic has also had a medium- to long-term impact on the agricultural sector, with favourable weather conditions leading to a normal or above-normal harvest in June. However, the transport, logistics, and processing of food have been impacted the hardest, with large increases in rural poverty numbers projected. The pandemic has also had a significant impact on food and nutrition security, with consumers opting for less food and cheaper, less nutrient-rich food items as incomes decline. This has resulted in increased disease vulnerability, particularly among children and women. The closure of schools has also negatively impacted the nutritional status of pupils from vulnerable households, leading to childhood malnutrition and nutrition-related mortality. Informal cross-border traders, who are predominantly women, have also seen their livelihoods disappear overnight, impacting the nutrition of their families. The pandemic has also had an impact on agricultural trade, with record monthly export volumes of coffee in 2020. However, the prices of coffee have remained stable, with the average ICO Robusta price tracking closely with the five-year average. Maize exports have also followed a normal seasonal pattern, with formal exports remaining above 2019 levels but below the five-year average. Informal maize exports, however, have been decimated due to external border closures and movement restrictions. The pandemic has also had a significant impact on agriculture SMEs, with a reduction in turnover and sales of over 30% for seeds, fertilizers, and veterinary drugs. The sector has also experienced liquidity issues, with cash flow interrupted and loan recovery and savings rates negatively impacted. The pandemic has also led to a significant reduction in demand for processed foods and beverages, with commercial producers more exposed to the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic has had a spatial impact on the agricultural sector, with existing vulnerabilities increased and new ones created in Karamoja. The movement restrictions have worsened the impact of pre-existing FMD, coinciding with the 'lean' season. Livestock and food markets have been closed, leading to decreased household incomes, thefts, and raids, resulting in significant livestock losses. Cross-border trade in livestock and other agricultural products has also been significantly reduced, leading to a food and nutrition crisis in the region.