The Nexus of Fragility and Climate Risks

These states often have weak institutions and limited capacity to respond to climate-related challenges, which can further strain their ability to govern effectively and legitimately. Understanding where fragility and climate risks co-occur is crucial for both policy makers and development practitioners. Climate stressors, such as rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability, can affect agricultural productivity, with implications for food security. Climate risk refers to the potential for negative consequences due to changing climatic conditions, where the outcome is uncertain. Climate exposure is the presence of people, livelihoods, species, or ecosystems in places and settings that could be adversely affected by climate change and variability as a function of their location. Fragility results when interactions between state and society fail to meet critical public needs, and the public accordingly perceives outcomes as illegitimate, ineffective, or both. Countries with high levels of fragility often have weak institutions and limited capacity to respond to climate-related challenges. Challenges posed by climate change and variability may heighten fragility by further straining a state's capacity to govern effectively and legitimately. States with high exposure to climate hazards face multifaceted challenges, including increased physical and livelihood risks, such as greater exposure to extreme events and greater fluctuations in agricultural yields. For government institutions, these challenges can include the need to redirect scarce resources toward adaptation or humanitarian response efforts. Responding to high exposure to even a single climate stressor can require substantial resources, infrastructure, and mobilization. The research summarized in this document identifies the locations where fragility and climate risks co-occur around the world. It assesses key global fragility and climate patterns and country-specific risks to assess how these dynamics may coalesce to foster instability, strain state capacity, and undermine human security. The study is the first publicly available quantitative effort to map the intersection of fragility and climate risks globally. Fragility is defined as the extent to which state-society relations fail to produce outcomes that are considered to be effective and legitimate. Effectiveness refers to the capability of the government to work with society to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. Legitimacy refers to the perception by important segments of society that the government is exercising state power in ways that are reasonably fair and in the interests of the nation as a whole. The research highlights the importance of considering state-society relations and the dynamics of legitimacy and effectiveness in understanding the indirect pathways between climate risks and potential conflict outcomes. It also emphasizes the need to assess key global fragility and climate patterns and country-specific risks to identify opportunities and focal points for intervention and risk management. The study provides new tools for assessing compound fragility-climate risks and associated opportunities for intervention. It builds on the groundbreaking work commissioned by the G7 that developed an integrated framework for assessing compound fragility-climate risks. The research aims to provide a better understanding of the complex relationships between fragility and climate risks, and to inform policy and development efforts to address these challenges. Highly fragile states with large numbers of people in high or very high exposure areas include countries such as Somalia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. These countries face significant challenges in responding to climate-related challenges, and their fragility can be exacerbated by climate change and variability. Understanding the intersection of fragility and climate risks in these countries is crucial for informing policy and development efforts to address these challenges. The research highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships between fragility and climate risks. It emphasizes the importance of considering the dynamics of legitimacy and effectiveness in state-society relations, and the need to assess key global fragility and climate patterns and country-specific risks to identify opportunities and focal points for intervention and risk management. The study provides a framework for understanding the intersection of fragility and climate risks, and for identifying opportunities and focal points for intervention and risk management. It aims to inform policy and development efforts to address these challenges, and to provide a better understanding of the complex relationships between fragility and climate risks.