USAID V-LEEP Support to Developing Vietnam's 8th National Power Development Plan

In contrast, renewable energy (RE) has experienced rapid growth over the past few years, accounting for approximately a quarter of Vietnam's 68 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2020. Despite the COVID pandemic, Vietnam added 7,237 MWAC of rooftop solar capacity in 2020. To ensure adequate power supply for the country's continued socio-economic development and adapt to the rapidly changing energy landscape, the Government of Vietnam prepares a Power Development Plan (PDP) outlining power sector priorities. However, the methods and tools used for previous PDPs are no longer sufficient given the ever-growing reliance on RE and its unique characteristics, such as variability, uncertainty, and locational specificity. The Electricity Renewable Energy Authority (EREA), under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), recognized the need for a change in traditional planning methodologies to evaluate the short-to-medium term operational impacts of variable renewable energy (vRE) on Vietnam's power system. USAID V-LEEP supported EREA to adopt, learn, and use state-of-the-art methods, practices, and tools, including the advanced modeling software PLEXOS. PLEXOS enables the most advanced modeling analysis, particularly for hourly resolution of the power system and power market, taking into consideration the high penetration of solar power and wind power. USAID V-LEEP also helped EREA establish a Modelling Working Group (MWG) including members from other relevant power stakeholders in the Government of Vietnam and V-LEEP, to discuss and exchange ideas on power modeling. The MWG members received a detailed training program to learn to use PLEXOS for hourly production cost modeling and long-term capacity expansion. V-LEEP led the study and demonstration on using PLEXOS for production cost modeling and assessing the previous Revised PDP-7 to demonstrate the utility and necessity of these new tools and methodologies. As a result of USAID V-LEEP efforts, the PDP-8 included a full year (8760 hour), nodal-level System Operations Analysis using a production cost model (PCM) for selected years, a first for a PDP in Vietnam. This enables enhanced operational analysis and a more accurate evaluation of the impact of RE. The introduction of PLEXOS and other relevant tools, as well as more detailed data, not only enhanced the operational analysis under PDP-8 but also provided feedback for transmission planning. USAID V-LEEP's introduction of PLEXOS and associated capacity building efforts helped boost the confidence and comfort of EREA and IEVN, enabling them to formally apply PLEXOS for PDP-8 preparation.