World food, a perspective

PAST PUBLICATIONS OF THE UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION HAVE BEEN PESSIMISTIC, BUT THE GREEN REVOLUTION OF THE 1960S HAS LED TO MORE OPTIMISM. ONE KEY FACTOR WILL BE POPULATION CONTROL THROUGH REDUCED BIRTH RATES IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. DEATH RATES ARE BEING LOWERED RAPIDLY, AND BIRTH CONTROL INFORMATION AND CONTRACEPTIVES ARE BECOMING AVAILABLE TO THIRD WORLD USERS AT NO COST. BUT CONTRACEPTIVES WILL NOT BE USED UNLESS THE RECIPIENTS ARE SURE THAT THEIR ONE OR TWO CHILDREN WILL REACH MATURITY. HENCE THE RACE BETWEEN POPULATION AND JOBS. FOOD SHORTAGES ARE NOT A PROBLEM OF PARTICULAR COUNTRIES BUT OF THE POOR, WHATEVER THEIR COUNTRY. THIS IS WHY THE WORLD BANK AND USAID ARE SEARCHING FOR INVESTMENTS THAT WILL BENEFIT THE POOREST CLASSES. THE EXAMPLE OF CHINA HAS TAKEN ON RESPECTABILITY. BUT RELIANCE ON BARBARA WARD"S "EIGHT-ACRE MAN" MAY LEAD TO EQUITY WITHOUT GROWTH. IN ANY EVENT, OVER THE LONG TERM THE PROBLEM OF PROVIDING ADEQUATE FOOD FOR THE POOR IN LDCS WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN THOSE COUNTRIES. IF THIS CANNOT BE ACCOMPLISHED SOON ENOUGH, CIVIL STRIFE ON AN UNPRECEDENTED SCALE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO AVOID.