World food needs and availabilities, 1987/88 : winter update

Projections are made under two distributional regimes: status quo (SQ) - the amount of food a country needs to maintain recent levels; and nutrition-based (NB) - the amount needed to meet minimal dietary requirements. The detailed tables and narrative include information on the quantities and dollar values of consumption for the past 8 years and of changed projections for 1987/88 and 1988/89 both for regions and for selected countries within each region. Total SQ shortfalls for cereals (the key commodities in international food aid) for 1987/88 are estimated at 27.7 million tons (up 18.8 million from the August 1987 assessment and up 1.4 million from that of November 1987), with Asia (Nepal, Sri Lanka) and East Africa having the greatest increases in needs. Total NB cereal shortfalls are put at 43 million tons, up 26 million from 1986/87. For 1988/89, total SQ cereal shortfalls are estimated at 10 million tons, 18 million below the current assessment for 1987/88; this assumes a full recovery of food production in South Asia. Under the same assumption, NB cereal needs for 1988/89 are expected to decline by 26 million tons.