Commercialization of agriculture under population pressure : effects on production, consumption, and nutrition in Rwanda

Major findings are as follows. (1) The introduction of tea production has not added to aggregate income, because competition from other crops is strong, and unit production costs are high due to underutilization of existing tea factory capacities. (2) Commercial potato production, while central to employment and household food availability, is done in a key water catchment area, thereby threatening the sustainability of the production environment. (3) Options for gains from commercialization do appear to exist, but poor farmers largely forgo these benefits because of the need for food insurance (subsistence). They are too poor to opt for an "efficient" production pattern. At the same time, income from off-farm employment is sizable, accounting for an average of 57.5% of total income. Such employment is expected to more than double by 2005. (4) Calorie deficiency is a problem of a large number of households, and especially affects children. Solution of this problem, which will be aggravated by the projected rapid population increase and corresponding drop in food self-sufficiency among rural households, will require both increases in household calorie consumption and improved nutritional services accessible to the poor. (5) Long-term simulations indicate that the rapidly rising person-land ratio will further increase intensification of food crop production with higher labor inputs per unit of land. A substantial expansion of sweet potato production stands out as a result and points to the need for technological change in this crop.