COVID-19 Modeling and the Crop Cycle

This analysis examines the overlap between projected COVID-19 case totals in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and key phases in the crop production cycle to identify potential areas of impact. The analysis utilizes two primary models: the LSHTM model, which projects COVID-19 case totals, and the GEOGLAM crop calendars, which provide information on crop production cycles. The LSHTM model is a widely used tool for predicting COVID-19 case totals, while the GEOGLAM crop calendars offer detailed information on crop production cycles, including planting and harvesting dates. The analysis focuses on 45 countries, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, and others, with a total of 93 crop calendars. The crop calendars provide information on the planting and harvesting dates for various crops, including maize, wheat, and rice. The analysis examines the overlap between projected COVID-19 case totals and key phases in the crop production cycle, including planting, harvesting, and peak production periods. The results of the analysis indicate that COVID-19 is likely to have a significant impact on crop production in several countries, particularly during peak production periods. For example, in Afghanistan, the projected COVID-19 case totals overlap with the peak production period for wheat, which is a critical crop for the country's food security. Similarly, in Bangladesh, the projected COVID-19 case totals overlap with the peak production period for rice, which is a staple crop for the country. The analysis also highlights the importance of considering the crop production cycle when planning Feed the Future programming. By understanding where and when COVID-19 is likely to have an impact on crop production, development programs can better target their efforts to support farmers and improve food security. In terms of specific crops, the analysis indicates that maize, wheat, and rice are likely to be affected by COVID-19 in several countries. Maize is a critical crop for food security in many LMICs, and its production is likely to be impacted by COVID-19 in countries such as Kenya and Tanzania. Wheat is another important crop, particularly in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it is a staple food. Rice is a critical crop for food security in many Asian countries, including Bangladesh and India. Overall, the analysis highlights the importance of considering the crop production cycle when planning development programs in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. By understanding where and when COVID-19 is likely to have an impact on crop production, development programs can better target their efforts to support farmers and improve food security.