Demand Forecasting Approaches for New Contraceptive Technologies: A Landscape Review and Recommendations for Alignment

The purposes of these estimations and forecasts vary widely, and no single approach fulfills all purposes. A mismatch between purpose and methodology can lead to poor decisions. Several approaches can help forecasters account for the existing method mix. Some forecasts estimate shifts in the entire method mix and modern contraceptive prevalence, while others generate estimates of uptake or product use for a single method or product. Historical trend data from similar contraceptive methods can help ground forecasts for new methods. When developing a forecast or market size estimate, it is critical to choose a methodology fit-for-purpose, reality test the results, consider method switching and effects on the broader method mix, communicate assumptions clearly, acknowledge uncertainty, and refresh forecasts as new information becomes available. When using a forecast or market size estimate to make decisions, it is essential to confirm if the estimate was developed for this purpose, examine the assumptions in detail, and consider whether adjustments or a different approach are needed. In low- and middle-income countries, an estimated 218 million women do not want to have a child in the next 2 years or at all and are not using a modern method of contraception. The introduction of new contraceptive methods has the potential to fill a need for those who would choose a modern method if it better matched their contraceptive preferences. Research has shown that the introduction of a new contraceptive method can lead to a substantial increase in overall national modern contraceptive use. Market size estimates typically provide the number of potential users of a product, and demand forecasts typically provide the number of products needed in a certain time period. Estimates of market size and demand forecasts are commonly used to inform major decisions related to introducing new contraceptive products, from the stages of early research and development investments to the development of plans for initial procurement and launch in country. However, predicting uptake of new contraceptive methods is difficult, as demonstrated by an analysis of U.S. Agency for International Development procurement data showing that demand forecast errors for new and "underused" methods were more than 53 percentage points higher than other methods. A landscape review was conducted to describe the variety of purposes for and predominant approaches to modeling demand for new contraceptive methods to support sound, forecast-based decision-making and accurate data interpretation. The review aimed to clarify definitions and spotlight expert recommendations to improve the generation, interpretation, and use of such forecasts from product discovery through introduction. Key informants were identified and recruited through a consultative process within the study team, with a focus on maximizing diversity of informants across two dimensions: producers and consumers of forecasts, and informants with varying foci across the contraceptive development pipeline. The review identified several key recommendations for improving demand forecasting and market estimation for new contraceptive methods. These recommendations include selecting models that are fit-for-purpose, clearly articulating assumptions and uncertainty in model outputs, considering a broad range of contraceptive options in a forecast to capture the complete contraceptive supply environment, and performing a reality check of results and refreshing assumptions. By following these recommendations, forecasters can improve the accuracy and usefulness of their forecasts, ultimately leading to better decision-making and more effective use of limited resources.