DRG-LER II Tasking N042 Digitized Autocracy Literature Review: Final Report

New technologies such as the Internet and social media have reduced barriers to coordination, making it easier for ordinary citizens to mobilize and challenge unresponsive and repressive governments. Research indicates that in the post-Cold War era, protests have surpassed coups as the most common way that authoritarian leaders are ousted from office. However, authoritarian regimes have adapted to this new challenge and learned to co-opt digital tools in ways that significantly shape political dynamics in their regimes. Authoritarian regimes that employ digital repression face a lower risk of protests than those that do not use these tools. Digital repression not only decreases the likelihood of a protest occurring but also reduces the chances that a government will face large, sustained mobilization efforts. Furthermore, dictatorships harness technology not only to suppress protests but also to enhance older methods of control. Data show that dictatorships that increase their use of digital repression also tend to increase their use of violent forms of repression, particularly torture and the killing of opponents. This indicates that authoritarian leaders do not replace traditional repression with digital repression, but rather use digital tools to fine-tune targeted repression. The use of digital repression has made authoritarian regimes a more formidable threat to democracy. The rising tide of technology has seemingly benefited all dictatorships, and research has shown that those authoritarian regimes that rely more heavily on digital repression are among the most durable. Between 2000 and 2017, 37 of the 91 dictatorships that had lasted more than a year collapsed; those regimes that avoided collapse had significantly higher levels of digital repression, on average, than those that fell. Authoritarian regimes are using digital tools in various ways to support and enhance their survival tactics. These tools can have a transformative effect on a regime's repressive capacity, and autocrats are employing them to monitor citizens and identify dissidents, monitor the performance of regime elite, and root out underperforming members. New technologies also afford authoritarian leaders greater control over members of the government, allowing them to keep tabs on government officials and gauge the extent to which they advance regime objectives. The advancement of AI-powered surveillance is the most significant evolution in digital authoritarianism. High-resolution cameras, facial recognition, spying malware, automated text analysis, and big-data processing have opened a wide range of new methods of citizen control, including those outside a government's borders through transnational repression. Authoritarian regimes are also using digital tools to enhance their ability to co-opt support, making it easier for governments to repress critics and co-opt supporters. Technology-powered integration between government agencies allows regimes to more precisely control access to government services, calibrate the distribution or denial of services, and maintain control over their populations. The use of digital repression has significant implications for democracy and human rights. As authoritarian regimes become more adept at using digital tools to suppress dissent and maintain control, the threat to democracy and human rights increases. The international community must be aware of these developments and take steps to counter the spread of digital authoritarianism.