Economic implications of a Middle East peace settlement : migration and population absorption projections for the West Bank and Gaza Strip

The total number of Palestinians currently living outside of the West Bank and Gaza Strip who are likely to return to these territories by 1985 is estimated at 104,000. This number could expand to 217,000, if Palestinians are forcibly expelled in large numbers by the nations they currently live in, or if development investment in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is significant. The economies of the West Bank and Gaza are probably capable of absorbing immigrant flows at the low end of the projected ranges, but will be able to absorb larger numbers only if high levels of foreign capital are provided in target areas. Various push-pull factors affect the rate of immigration into the two areas. Negative (push) factors include: (1) Discrimination toward resident Palestinians; (2) Few economic/employment opportunities for resident Palestinians; and (3) The likelihood of future Palestinian expulsions. Factors which motivate return migration include: (1) Restoration of family ties; (2) Potential political stability; and (3) Familiarity with the area. Policy decisions on economic growth and political stability in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will also have major effects on migration patterns. Policy decisions that would help reverse the current emigration of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, and improve the absorptive capacity of these areas include: (1) Improving economic prospect of West Bank and Gaza by providing foreign and domestic investment incentives; and (2) Providing a secure socio-political environment for Palestinians. Populations in the two areas will probably continue to be largely composed of younger age groups. This is likely to put a strain on the labor market housing and education. A bibliography of references used in the preparation of this report is included.