Reassessment of the prospects for fertility decline in Egypt : is development a prerequisite?

This report explores this question by analyzing Egypt"s demographic history since 1800 and recent trends in its population policy. Pre-1973 efforts chiefly consisted of providing contraceptives. This resulted in a drop in the birth rate from 43.0 to 34.4 per 1,000 from 1963-72. In 1973, Egypt reoriented its population policy to emphasize the developmental approach, i.e., aiming to reduce fertility through higher living standards, education, female employment, agricultural mechanization, rural industrialization, reduced infant mortality, improved social security, information dissemination, as well as the provision of FP services. Despite these efforts, birth rates rose to 41 per 1,000 in 1979. This rate, if continued unchecked, would lead to a doubling of Egypt"s population in 23 years, exhaust cultivable land, and increase dependence on foreign aid and imported food. Weaknesses in the FP program in Egypt under the developmental approach include a low participation rate (only 8-10% in rural areas, where the population is most concentrated); irregularity of contraceptive supply; underuse of the outreach approach; provision of FP services by only a few health or social service units; and general program inefficiency and lack of coordination. Proponents of the developmental approach cite the declining birth rates in 18 and 19th century Europe which accompanied industrialization and socioeconomic improvement to support their position. The author, however, questions the transferability of the European experience to contemporary developing countries. He explores instead the relationship between fertility and development which is unique to the Arab world, making note of Tunisia, Lebanon, and Egypt where, because of FP programs, fertility has declined without drastic changes in societal values or substantial socioeconomic development. He concludes that FP programs, by themselves, can have a significant impact independent of and greater than the impact of socioeconomic improvements. A 52-item bibliography (1936-80) is appended.