KENYA Food Security Outlook Update May 2012

The long rains, which typically start in early March, were delayed by up to five weeks across the country, with the exceptions of pockets in the northern and northeastern pastoral areas. The rainfall performance has been generally good in many places outside of the northern and northeastern pastoral areas and the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, where rainfall has been below average and poorly distributed over both time and space. The delayed long rains have resulted in a decline in household food security situation across the southeastern marginal agricultural zone. However, the improved availability of milk, short cycle crops, and casual labor opportunities are moderating the decline. Households are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while a few are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Food insecurity is intensifying in the coastal lowlands where the long rains have not recharged water sources or supported crop growth. The Kenya Red Cross Society and local government officials reported that nearly 65 people have been killed and around 4,000 households have been displaced by flash floods and landslides. The flash floods have destroyed property and disrupted schooling and transportation in northwestern, western, and southwestern Kenya. Additional flooding and landslides are likely to occur in localized areas of West Pokot, Marakwet, Busia, Nyando, and Meru, where up to 200 millimeters of rain is forecast over the next seven days. The long rains have been partially consistent with the seasonal forecast, with some areas receiving normal to above normal rains. However, the rains have been poorly distributed in time and space, and have been below 60 percent of normal in some parts of the northeastern and northern pastoral areas. The short-term Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates that rains are likely to continue into the fourth week of May in most areas, with the exceptions of Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Ijara, Lamu, Malindi, and Kilifi districts. Pastoral conditions have been affected by the delayed long rains, with the availability of water, browse, and pasture being normal to above normal in many places due to improvements following the good short rains in late 2011. However, grazing resources have depleted in some areas where the rains have been poor, leading to livestock migration in the middle of the long rains season in Tana River and Garissa. The food security situation for pastoralists in areas where the rains have been exceptionally poor is likely to decline starting in July, with livestock body conditions and household milk access being disrupted.